Detecting New Sources of Childhood Environmental Lead Exposure Using a Statistical Surveillance System, 2015-2019.

Objectives. To design and implement a statistical surveillance system to prospectively identify potential clusters of elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) in children younger than 6 years in the Denver, Colorado, metro area. Methods. We evaluated the ability of 2 independent statistical surveillance methods to detect synthetic clusters of EBLLs in Denver between 2015 and 2019. Results. Together, the statistical surveillance methods took an average of 9 months to detect the synthetic clusters. This is faster than similar real-world clusters that have been reported in the past. The system was relatively unaffected by changes in the testing rate and to the blood lead reference value. Conclusions. The adequate design of a statistical surveillance system can help increase the rate at which clusters of EBLLs are detected in Denver, but doing so requires an accurate model of the spatial distribution of EBLLs. Earlier detection of clusters can help guide more effective public health interventions at the local level. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(S7):S715-S722. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307009).

Contribution of Organic Nitrates to Organic Aerosol over South Korea during KORUS-AQ.

The role of anthropogenic NOx emissions in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production is not fully understood but is important for understanding the contribution of emissions to air quality. Here, we examine the role of organic nitrates (RONO2) in SOA formation over the Korean Peninsula during the Korea-United States Air Quality field study in Spring 2016 as a model for RONO2 aerosol in cities worldwide. We use aircraft-based measurements of the particle phase and total (gas + particle) RONO2 to explore RONO2 phase partitioning. These measurements show that, on average, one-fourth of RONO2 are in the condensed phase, and we estimate that ≈15% of the organic aerosol (OA) mass can be attributed to RONO2. Furthermore, we observe that the fraction of RONO2 in the condensed phase increases with OA concentration, evidencing that equilibrium absorptive partitioning controls the RONO2 phase distribution. Lastly, we model RONO2 chemistry and phase partitioning in the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. We find that known chemistry can account for one-third of the observed RONO2, but there is a large missing source of semivolatile, anthropogenically derived RONO2. We propose that this missing source may result from the oxidation of semi- and intermediate-volatility organic compounds and/or from anthropogenic molecules that undergo autoxidation or multiple generations of OH-initiated oxidation.

Long-term air pollution and other risk factors associated with COVID-19 at the census tract level in Colorado.

Previous nationwide studies have reported links between long-term concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. In order to translate these results to the state level, we use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore potential links between long-term PM2.5 concentrations and census tract-level rates of COVID-19 outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, and deaths) in Colorado. We explicitly consider how the uncertainty in PM2.5 estimates affects our results by comparing four different PM2.5 surfaces from academic and governmental organizations. After controlling for 20 census tract-level covariates, we find that our results depend heavily on the choice of PM2.5 surface. Using PM2.5 estimates from the United States EPA, we find that a 1 µg/m3 increase in long-term PM2.5 concentrations is associated with a statistically significant 26% increase in the relative risk of hospitalizations and a 34% increase in mortality. Results for all other surfaces and outcomes were not statistically significant. At the same time, we find a clear association between communities of color and COVID-19 outcomes at the Colorado census tract level that is minimally affected by the choice of PM2.5 surface. A per-interquartile range (IQR) increase in the percent of non-African American people of color was associated with a 31%, 43%, and 56% increase in the relative risk of infection, hospitalization, and mortality respectively, while a per-IQR increase in the proportion of non-Hispanic African Americans was associated with a 4% and 7% increase in the relative risk of infections and hospitalizations. The current disagreement among the different PM2.5 estimates is a key factor limiting our ability to link environmental exposures and health outcomes at the census tract level. These results have strong implications for the implementation of an equitable public health response during the crisis and suggest targeted areas for additional air monitoring in Colorado.